Forex Secrets II

Developing The “Anti-Chaos” Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market

Forex Secrets

Executive Summary about Forex Secret II by V Vasilevich

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secrets – Developing the “anti-chaos” trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part I)

It is horrible to imagine what could happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market in this case. At the controllable market of Forex USD rate would fall down just by 1-2%.

I hope that my opponents, who deny the existence of a system controlling Forex market, do remember the elementary economical laws. USD rate stably increases. Even the poorest country in the world – Haiti – provided the financial help for USA ($ 36 thousands). What did happen to USD rate at the controllable Forex market? Chart 8.7. EURO/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Brief conclusions for traders .

Under the new conditions of the controllable market, a trader must not follow the “crowd” (flock). On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders must be opened in advance of Consortium’s interests!

I try to find the core of a good sense in each technique of the successful work at Forex . There are many prosperous traders who openly and honestly present their methods of gaining profits at Forex . Conclusion #1. Conclusion #2 . Your trading system must not be just a mixture (farrago) of various techniques. Conclusion #3. A trader must develop his own trading system. a. you choose just any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williams’s, or somebody’s else);

b. you must get used to work with the demo account according to this technique to such extent of automatism that you “sense’ it as your own initial (original) trading system of the work at Forex

You must clearly see what pointes, “borrowed” from other authors, can help you personally to work at Forex , to improve your trading system for getting extra profits.

Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the controllable one. The same concerns the biggest and most conservative area of business – i.e., its financial branch, the world market of currency exchange included. Can “Chaos” rule the market where the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? Let us enumerate the fundamental mistakes made in “Trading Chaos”. It is necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and practical recommendations given by B. Williams concerning the work at Forex .

1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. According to this author, it is chaos but not an organized system that would have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, methods of fraud, etc.

2. B. Williams mentions the pair “trader + broker”. Surely, this organization will not just take a detached view of the traders’ arbitrary “game” with the basic world currencies (USD, EURO, GBP, CHF, etc.).

Our aim is to demonstrate absurdity of his “chaos theory” applied to the up-to-date market of Forex.

· How brokers and banks market-makers can pay off profits from traders’ deposits if the traders’ total earnings would be bigger than the market-maker’s profit in this period?

Somebody will earn the money, whereas somebody will lose it because of the difference in rates of exchange (quotations).

· What does the theory of “chaos” at Forex represent by itself if Organizer of the “game” has trained all traders to act according to the stereotype?

d). In the case of divergence, one must try to work against the trend. Further I’ll not dwell on absurdity of the chaos theory by B. Williams when applied to Forex . Any trader can find a lot of evidences of the fact that Forex is a controllable market. There are also many examples that prove fallacy of B. Williams’s conclusion that traders form a trend and “push” it.

As I get it, the “game” of Forex and its rules in their essence are the following.

1. There is Organizer of the financial game (the Alligator) and participants (victims).

3. All participants of the “game” are subjected to the same psychological treatment by Brokers, authors of numerical “classical” works on Forex and analysts via their sites and prognoses. That is, such specialists teach every trader to work as all others in the world do.

What for will they send clients’ transactions to the foreign market (the market-maker bank)? In fact, traders will lose all the same! Besides, it is possible to slightly “help” traders in their losing by “knocking down” stop-losses – all traders keep their stop-losses approximately at the same place. One can give many analogous examples – up to the undisguised fraudulent nonpayment of earned profits to traders.

If Brokers has one point of spread, you should calculate expenses on the marginal trade, in detail described in all “classical” manuals of Forex . Forex Brokers supposedly buys EURO to the sum of $ 100 thousands for you. When you close the order, Forex Brokers supposedly transfer EURO to USD again. Thus, if you open 10 deals with EURO/USD pair during a day, your Forex Brokers is supposed to send money abroad and get it back 10 times, buying EURO for USD and v.v. 5. To earn regularly at Forex, you have to master yourself. As it is already mentioned, these rules are popularized by Organizer of the game at Forex . Sticking to these rules, more than 90% of traders all over the world lose their money.

6. Developing my trading system, I have made use of numerous generally-recognized techniques of the work at Forex (by B. Williams, etc.). Naturally, a trader must use only this first part of the system, where one can gain profit.

7. For the development of your own trading system, you must do your best to organically integrate different techniques, profitable at Forex. Various methods of giving analysis to Forex from different viewpoints do help us to more thoroughly and profoundly understand this market and, consequently, to gain profit regularly.

8. The game of Forex is widely spread all over the world. 10. Forex gives you just a chance to earn money. However, not everybody can learn how to gain real profit. Even after having mastered the fundamentals of making money at Forex , a trader needs to learn a lot of additional factors in order to transform his potential abilities into real money. b). a reliable broker (the trader’s profits, being virtual, materialize only if you can convert it into real money at any second);

c). self-perfection via mastering new techniques of gaining profit, learning from an experienced instructor and due to exchanging opinions with other traders;

This gives the opportunity to proceed from the level of one’s own deposit of several hundreds or thousands of USD to the principally new level of the work at Forex. At mini- Forex , many traders do not earn a lot of money: even if a trader has doubled his deposit in a month, his profit is small (e. g., by making $100 out of $50). As a trader, here you work against Organizer of this game, who is the professional. b). To work out one’s own tactic of the work with the demo account at Forex to perfection. It means that Forex is not intended for you.

The reason is that I’m not an employee of BROKER but a trader. Note:

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Forex Secrets – Delusion No1

Forex Currency Rate And Economic Factors Impact On Exchange Rate

Forex Secrets

Executive Summary about Forex Secrets – Delusion No 1 by V Vasilevich

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state’s economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.

Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.

Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency). Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.

“Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there’s a price rally and if visa versa, there’s a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles”.

Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.

In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the country’s economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country’s economy condition as below:

State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country’s securities market condition and dynamics. The country’s interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country’s economy and hence into national currency strength.

Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). The country’s gold and currency reserve assets.

Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.

Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)

Conclusions:

Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.

Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.

In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (“rumored trade”), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;

Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?

Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.

The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: “Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency”http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.

- whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),

As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that “All the economists share these underlying principles”.

Comment No.1. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?

FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). Please, think over A. Elder words, that: “FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.

By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. Now, getting back to the currency chart. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.

There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Note: