]]> http://www.aworldafilm.com/property-shares-press-hang-seng-index/feed/ 0 http://www.aworldafilm.com/china-threatens-stock-markets/ http://www.aworldafilm.com/china-threatens-stock-markets/#comments Sat, 10 Apr 2010 09:20:38 +0000 sapto http://www.aworldafilm.com/?p=484 Hottest issue these days is China’s monetary tightening undertaken. Toward the Lunar New Year holiday on the day last Friday, China’s central bank announced its latest monetary policy tightening by raising minimum reserve requirements for China’s big banks amounted to 0.5 percent from February 25 this year. Thus, the statutory minimum for China’s big banks to 16.5 percent. This is the second time China raised the statutory minimum. The last on January 18, 2010.

The policy was carried out by China’s central bank to offset the inflationary pressures that began to grow due to China’s growing economic extraordinary. The inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index, rose 1.5 percent compared to last year for the Month of January 2010.And the possibility of the inflation rate will be higher for the months that followed.

What is the impact of this monetary tightening to a stock index?

As we all know, China’s monetary tightening is aimed to curb credit expansion has been done before by the major banks of China.
This credit is one source of income from banking and automatic banking revenue is likely to reduce later. Moreover, this tightening is also likely to cause companies which during the lean business expansion through bank loans may be slightly disrupted business. In essence, monetary tightening is aimed at absorbing liquidity that has so many digelontorkan to market and reduce hot money and prevent the economy becomes overheated or a bubble. In the short term this will certainly affect negatively to the index of Asian stocks, particularly China and Hong Kong stock index. Banking shares which are shares of large and highly influential berkapitalisasi to the movement of stock indices will be suppressed. So also share properties that are not directly related to banking conditions will also be depressed.

During the year 2010, the market will pay close attention signals monetary tightening by central banks in countries that previously poured so much money to support their economy. Although monetary policy in the long run be good for economic development of the country concerned, but in the short term will reduce the movement of stock indices.

Pasca published new shares or rights issue ENRG, BNBR ownership in oil and natural gas was undermined by 16.89 percent.

Herwin W. Hidayat, Investor Relations ENRG, explained, after the rights issue 26.18 billion shares, public investors have a 70.42 percent stake. ”While 28.12 percent of shares owned BNBR, either directly or indirectly,” he said, yesterday. In addition, PT Danatama Makmur and PT Madani Securities, as the standby buyer’s rights issue, also has a 1.46 percent stake in Energi Mega.

In fact, according to a rights offering prospectus which was published late last year, BNBR still controlled 45.01 percent stake ENRG directly and indirectly. BNBR only got 0.02 percent of shares directly. While 18.78 percent of their shares through PT Brantas Indonesia and 26.21 percent of shares through PT Kondur Indonesia. That is, post-rights issue, ownership of ENRG trimmed BNBR 16.89 percent.

“The fall in ownership BNBR for not executing some of its rights,” said Herwin. Indeed, earlier, on December 9, 2009 BNBR has made a statement a commitment to buy the rights issue 4.9 billion shares or 18.84 percent of the total new shares ENRG.

“BNBR has done subscription worth Rp 912 billion, according to a letter bear,” said Herwin. In fact, with 45.01 percent ownership stake, should BNBR bought 11.78 billion new shares.

Although BNBR not execute all the rights, the standby purchasers had also just bought a new stock ENRG. So, who’s buying the new shares so that the public ownership under the 5 percent rise to 70.42 percent?

Vice President of Investment Bank Danatama Makmur, Vicky Ganda Saputra said it hopes to do with the release of strategic placement of new shares to ENRG foreign investors. ”There were seven to eight investors,” he said. The number of shares of placement was 7.4 billion shares.

Acting Governor of BI Nasution Nasution said that the strengthening of the dollar since the beginning of this week through to the Rp 9150 the U.S. dollar caused by the massive flow of capital into the country.

“This is the flow of funds from abroad, therefore, not only for our country. Do not ever think it’s just for our country,” said Nasution Bank Building, Jakarta.

According to Nasution, the inflow of foreign funds in developing countries, all the better interest rates, high or low referral. It happened because the U.S. economic growth is too slow, so that the funds from Uncle Sam Itupun eventually.

“The U.S. is more peaceful country, not a worry. But if the economy grows slowly, as now, the money is released,” he added.

Nasution admitted strengthening rupee in recent times not to make all parties comfortable. BI will allow the rupee to move according to market mechanisms, without reference to any given time.

“When asked solace in the economy, there are always different events. There is little interest in the rupee, rupee a strong interest,” he concluded.

U.S. dollar has been depressed long enough for most of the year 2009 due to begin restoration of the economy both in the U.s> or outside the U.S.  Massive stimulus being poured in by the government of the world nations are helping the countries to which its economy slumped out of deteriotion. Investors also began to look for and invest their funds into investments that offer a yield greater than the U.S. dollar.

In financial markets, the value of investment products went up. Index stocks, commodities, and currencies were yieldtinggi, all on the top level. Investor sentiment has grown to be positive for economic recovery. Fundamentals data that have been released in 2009 showed an increase although it is still not stable. Starting from the European Union area that has begun to advance out of the recession. Germany and France, two countries with the largest economy in the European Union, has come out of the recession at the end of the 2nd quarter, followed by Japan also came out of the recession at the end of the 2nd quarter. The entire European Union have made it out of the recession in the 3rd quarter as well as with U.S. GDP growth in the quarter 3 is remarkable.

With GDP growth was positive and supported with data and other economic fundamentals that had started to improve, now appears discourse when stakeholders begin to exit strategy to withdraw the stimulus.

Australia’s central bank raised interest rates 3 times towards the end of 2009. The total increase of 75 basics points to 3.75 percent. In Europe, the European central bank chief, Trichet was throwing discourse to attract stimulus. And in the U.S. apprears the same discourse. Many analysts expect the Federal Reserve will accelerate the increase in U.S interest rates which may occur in mid 2010 taking into account the conditions of the labor sector that the rate of termination of its workforce began to fall dramatically.

Non Farm Payroll data last showed remarkable decrease in the rate of termination of such employment, from thousands of workers minus 111  om October to just minus 11 thousand workers in november. Discourse could make the U.S. dollar rose against world currencies. But if the strengthening U.S. dollar will continue in 2010?

In the last policy meeting of 2009, the Federal Reserve issued a statement which is still the same as the previous meeting of maintaining low interst rates for an unspecified time. But the statement is more previous meeting of maintaining low interst rates for an unspecified time. But the statement is more optimistic that ever before by adding that the economy continues to improve and decline in the labor market as been reduced.

It seems the U.S. central bank is still going to waint for the development of economic data until mid 2010 before deciding to raise interest rates. The U.S. goverment until the end of 2009 is also still retain some stimulus, and even extend until the year 2010. Some of the extended stimulus among others, TARP, the housing sector, employment sector, etc. This shows that the economic recovery is still not stable and still keep the economic risk can be reentered the hole recession. Reducing high unemployment rate became the main issue in 2010.

ECB also seems to still be maintaining interest rates for a while. In a press conference responding to the decision last interest rate, ECB President Jean Claude Tricet gave no indication to raise interest rates in the near future but it gives and indication to withdraw some stimulus. While England still lagged behind the U.S. and the European Union. UK GDP was negative, which means not out of the recessionthat may still maintain a loose monetary policy for a longer time. One good thing from England is the data on the number of people claiming unemployment benefits declined sharplu, indicating the labor market began to improve. SNB ( Swiss Central Bank ) will attract a stiulus to stop the purchase of corporate bonds in 2010. Many analtsts expect the SNB is likely to begin raising interest rates at the end of 2010. The central bank of Japan (BOJ) is still grappiling with the threat of deflation that hit Japan, so the possinility BOJ will not raise interest rates in 2010. Besides strengthening the BOJ is also facing a sharp yen against the U.S.  dollar is very disturbing that the Japanese economy largely depends on exports.

Australia’s central bank (RBA) which has raised interest rates in 2009 to three times seemed to soften the policy to increase interest rates in early 2010. RBA officials said that interest rates are now back to normal which gives the message to the markets that a rate hike in 2010 would not be too aggressive changes in central bank policy, whatever it is, still waiting for the development of fundamental data on the economy first and second quarter. Increase the stability of the data numbers of economic fundamentals is what policy makers expected to raise interest rates or attractive stimulus.

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